By Kenneth D. Lawrence, Michael D. Geurts

This quantity is a part of a blind refereed serial e-book released on an annual foundation. the target of this examine annual is to provide stories within the program of forecasting methodologies to such parts as revenues, advertising and marketing, and strategic selection making.

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Extra resources for Advances in Business and Management Forecasting, Volume 4 (Advances in Business and Management Forecasting) (Advances in Business & Management Forecasting)

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Fig. 2 graphs the same prior Y(0|0), the same January update Y(1|1) and adds the February revision of the forecast Y(2|2). This update has been steered downward further by the advance order information in Z(2). With a full five-month lead-time we were forewarned by Y(1|1) that the sales in the future months of May and June will drop significantly! Y(1|1) and Y(2|2) suggest that the product life cycle will peak in March or April and thereafter decline. This is how life cycle turning points are forecasted by this model.

0009. 0800. The negative mean makes sense in view of the decreasing trend seen in the original series. The differenced series (Fig. 0002. 0400. As can be observed, the absolute mean value of the differenced durable series is higher than the absolute mean of the differenced nondurable series. This implies that the average decrease (slope) in I-S ratio is higher in the durable series than in the non-durable series. It appears that JIT and lean manufacturing have been more effective on the durable sector than on the non-durable sector.

Hanssens, D. M. (1998). Order forecasts, retail sales, and the marketing mix for consumer durables. Journal of Forecasting, 17, 327–346. , & Malhotra, A. (2001). Have US manufacturing inventories really decreased? An empirical study. Manufacturing and Service Operations Management, 2(1), 14–24. , Koehler, A. , & Ord, J. K. (2002). Forecasting for inventory control with exponential smoothing. International Journal of Forecasting, 18, 5–18. Steffens, P. R. (2001). An aggregate sales model for consumer durables incorporating a timevarying mean replacement age.

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